Fuck you Denver Broncos.
Ahhhh that doesn’t help at all.
Allow me to explain….
Normally when I write for MSF, I write about the “other” football…soccer. Today, however, I felt the need to go on a weeee bit of a rant about the “other, other” football… football. Because as you probably deduced from the title, I had a bit of a tough go of it this past NFL Sunday.
You see, up until the Sunday Nighter I had gone 11 for 11 on my ‘proline pools’ ticket. This meant that in order to split the pot I needed two more wins. And, with my Monday night pick being San Fran over Washington, I was mostly concerned with Denver being able to beat New England in Foxboro.
So I settled in, ready for a back-and-forth free for all. But that’s not what happened.
Instead, the game started out like a dream, as if the gods were shining down upon my golden ticket. Denver was gifted a 24-0 lead.
I was in disbelief. I was in ecstasy.
But what the good lord giveth, the good lord taketh away.
Like an angry tornado swallowing up an outhouse… shit. hit. the. fan.
The Pats came back, and after sending the game to overtime, against all odds, ended up victorious.
I was in disbelief… again. I was completely dumbfounded.
So were the stats.
In the previous 622 games where a team was down by 24+ at halftime there had been exactly 5 teams to come back and win. That is a 0.8 % winning percentage… Denver/I had 99.2% of winning the game.
Also, in all the previous games that Tom Brady had played in his career, he had never come back from a 24 point deficit. Neither had the Patriots as a franchise. So that’s a 0% winning percentage.
And just for good measure, Peyton Manning had never lost a game having been up 24 points (50-0 regular season, 2-0 playoffs). A 100% winning percentage.
Suffice to say the football odds were in my favour. The football gods…not so much…
But hey, it’s not like the Broncos got my hopes up twice, before tearing them down like I was a German wall circa 1989 ….
Oh wait, I didn’t mention that even after blowing a 24 point lead, with 3 minutes to go in OT Denver was still looking like they were going to come through for me???
Well then, I digress….
See, for some unknown reason, when there is a tie in the NFL, proline pools awards the away team with the victory. Denver was away!
So, with 3:09 left on the clock there were 3 outcomes left in the game:
- Denver wins.
- New England wins.
- Tie game.
Two out of three of those options give me the win. That’s 66.6%
And, with Denver accepting a punt, I would have to assume that those odds started climbing. Maybe not 99.2%, but even conservative estimates must have put me back at 80% to win or tie right???
Alas, a comedy of errors- including Denver’s normal punt returner being replaced by Wes Welker (for defensive purposes ironically), a late fair catch signal by Welker, and an errant bounce into Tony Carter was the Broncos’ (and my) final undoing.
After sweating out multiple games for 10 hours, I was done.
Left broken, beaten, and betrayed by the same numbers that, as far as I’m concerned, mentally water-boarded me into telling them what the first thing I was going to do with my new fortune was.
On Monday, I begrudgingly checked the website winyourpool.com, which predicted that there were probably between 10-15 tickets that had a chance to go perfect if the Niners won.
It also said that had Denver won, there would have been less than 20 tickets that had a chance to go perfect.
Well, the Niners won and so did 12 people on proline pools card #76… they won $63,837.50 each.
Assuming that had Denver won, there would have been somewhere around 18 winners… that’s $42,559.
$42,559 that would have been all mine…
Instead, nadda… (well -$5 actually)
I know “you can’t win em all”, but sometimes some of ‘em hurt jussssst a little more.
Fuck you Denver Broncos.
Fuck you so hard.
-Andy “luckiest of the unlucky” Mac